BN in driving seat for Sabah electoral battle
By Newmond Tibin
KOTA KINABALU, May 3 (Bernama) -- After five days of campaigning in the 14th general election, polling for which is on May 9, the Sabah Barisan Nasional (BN) led by charismatic Chief Minister Tan Sri Musa Aman is now in the driving seat for the political battle in the state.
The Sabah BN, which is facing vote-splitting multi-cornered fights, looks set to retain power in the state, although some of the opposition parties claim to have made inroads into the BN strongholds in the east coast.
Despite the opposition's onslaught, including the emergence of Datuk Seri Mohd Shafie Apdal and his Parti Warisan Sabah (Warisan) in the battle for the parliamentary and state seats, Sabah BN is likely to win most of the seats won in the 2008 and 2013 general elections.
However, the BN expects tough fights for the parliamentary seats of Semporna, Batu Sapi, Silam, Kota Kinabalu, Tawau, Sandakan, Penampang, Beaufort, Sepanggar, Pensiangan, Keningau and Kota Marudu and the state seats of Api-Api, Luyang, Likas, Inanam, Kapayan, Moyog, Kadamaian, Matunggong, Klias, Senallang, Bugaya, Sulabayan, Paginatan, Kiulu, Tamparuli, Nabawan, Sri Tanjung, Karamunting, Tanjong Papat and Elopura.
This is the analysis of some political observers in Sabah, based on the local political scenario, where the opposition camp seems to be disunited, resulting in the multi-cornered fights.
In the 2008 general election, Sabah BN won 59 of the 60 state seats and 24 of the 25 parliamentary seats, and repeated the feat in the 2013 general election, winning 22 of the 25 parliamentary seats and 48 of the 60 state seats at stake.
Political analyst and senior lecturer of Universiti Malaysia Sabah, Dr Lee Kuok Tiung, said there was an indication that the majority of the people of Sabah might likely remain with the BN in the upcoming general election.
"Generally speaking, the people are happy with the Sabah BN or have confidence in the BN to deliver the goods but, of course, there are some who continue harping on the issues about high prices after the GST implementation, the Malaysia Agreement 1963, lack of job opportunities and other local issues.
"The opposition parties are trying to capitalise on these issues, especially the Malaysia Agreement, to win the hearts and minds of the people while the BN leaders criss-cross the state or go to the grassroots and enlighten them on the inclusive and comprehensive BN manifesto, especially the benefits for the people," he told Bernama.
Lee said the next five days would be crucial for both the BN and the opposition to make a final push to woo voters before the electorate cast their ballots.
As for the Chinese-dominated seats, he said, "there is a sign Chinese voters will swing back to BN in Kapayan and Penampang based on the huge crowd that turned up at the BN Penampang ceramah' (talk) in the Lido and Donggongon squares recently." He said this was mainly due to the candidate factor as both BN candidates Francis Goh (Kapayan state seat) and Ceasar Mandela (Penampang parliamentary seat) have the 'package' to attract the Chinese voters.
Both of these political greenhorns have the personality and are approachable, which may appeal to the community there to give them the opportunity to serve them as their ?wakil rakyat' (elected representatives), he said.
"In Kiulu (the Kadazandusun heartland) which is seeing a four-cornered fight, some say that the BN is facing a tough challenge, but in reality, the ruling party has the edge because the opposition is fragmented.
"A survey shows that the BN support in Kiulu is more than 50 per cent, which should be enough for the ruling party to retain the seat with a much bigger majority because the opposition votes would be split into three," he said.
The BN candidate for the Kiulu state seat and former Sabah Journalists Association president Datuk Joniston Bangkuai is being challenged by opponents from Warisan, PCS and STAR.
Lee also foresees that the BN is expected to face an uphill task in the Semporna parliamentary constituency where Shafie is defending his seat and challenging the BN candidate for the Senallang state seat.
"For the first time, the Muslim votes, which had been solidly behind UMNO, are likely to be split by Warisan led by the former UMNO vice-president (Shafie)," he said.
The BN has fielded candidates in all 25 parliamentary seats, and its opponents are from Warisan (in 16 seats), HR (14), PCS (eight), PAS (eight), PKR (six), STAR (five), DAP (three), Anak Negeri (two), PPRS (two), Perpaduan (one), Amanah (one) and Independents (4).
As for the state seats, BN has 60 candidates, Warisan 45, HR 26, STAR 21, PAS 18, PCS 18, PKS 16, PKR eight, DAP seven, Anak Negeri nine, PPRS eight, SAPP five, USNO two, Amanah one, Perpaduan one and Independents eight.
-- BERNAMA
